2024-12-27 15:31来源:明日科学网
共同民主党计划在27日的国会总会上通过对代理总统韩德洙的弹劾动议案。不管是否以简单多数弹劾代总统,而不是以三分之二多数弹劾代总统,韩总统很有可能无法继续履行政治职责。再次弹劾将使这个国家陷入前所未有的局面,即代理总统将被另一位代理领导人取代。
按照现行法律,将由副总理兼经济财政部长崔相穆兼任代总统、代总理、财政经济部长官。这种情况在任何稳定的民主国家都是不可想象的。韩国经济在戒严令失败的余波中依然脆弱,但刚刚开始显示出复苏的迹象。包括美国和日本在内的韩国盟友所表现出的信任和承诺对稳定韩国经济至关重要。
但如果韩国最终出现代总统的代总统,会发生什么呢?戒严令发生后,外国投资者抛售股票、韩元对美元汇率大幅下跌、消费和投资心理指数降至2008年全球金融危机以来的最低水平,经济受到了冲击。韩国的国家信用等级虽然没有受到影响,但在韩政府的努力下,情况仍然很不稳定。
第二个代总统将增加国家的政治风险,并引发第二次经济冲击。韩元的价值有可能急剧下降,从而提高美元的借贷成本。在第二次特朗普任期内增加潜在的更高关税,使经济复苏更具挑战性。
民主党似乎希望崔副总理能答应他们的要求。但如果他也像韩代行总统一样,坚持同样的原则呢?他们也会弹劾他吗?会有第三位代总统吗?这个循环在什么时候结束,这个国家会变成什么样子?
民主党发言人最近声称,可以同时弹劾5名内阁成员。这种情况可能会导致内阁无法达到法定人数,从而导致政府瘫痪。反对党暗示他们不介意把国家推向无政府状态和混乱。民主党应该放弃对提前大选的急躁和执着,通过与执政党的妥协来解决问题。对公众来说,这种方法比高压的政治压力更有说服力。
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27일 본회의에서 한덕수 대통령 권한대행에 대한 탄핵소추안을 처리한다고 한다. 대통령 대행의 탄핵소추를 국회 3분의 2가 아닌 과반으로 할 수 있느냐는 별개로 하더라도 정치적으로 한 대행은 더 이상 직무를 수행하지 않을 가능성이 높다. 그렇다면 일시적으로라도 헌정 사상 초유의 대통령 대행의 대행이 나오게 된다. 정부조직법상 최상목 경제부총리가 이어받게 되는데 최 부총리는 대통령 권한대행과 총리 권한대행, 기획재정부 장관까지 겸직해야 한다. 정상 국가에서는 상상하기도 어려운 일이다. 계엄 사태 이후 한국 경제는 이제 겨우 몸을 추스르고 있다. 미·일 등 주요국이 한덕수 대행과 직접 통화하며 신뢰를 표시한 것이 경제 안정에 도움이 됐다.